PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-8)
EXPECTATIONS: The franchise has essentially been running in place for nearly a decade, and the angst of being “good but not good enough” is growing, so much so that a team known for its stability made a handful of dramatic — by Steelers' standards anyway — moves in the offseason. The quarterback room was overhauled completely, with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields taking over Kenny Pickett (traded), Mitch Trubisky (cut) and Mason Rudolph (free agency). Longtime head coach Mike Tomlin hired Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator, hoping Smith can replicate the kind of dynamic attack he led while in the same position in Tennessee in 2019-20. The Steelers also signed inside linebacker Patrick Queen to the most expensive free agent contract they have ever offered, a three-year, $41 million deal to be the kind of heat-seeking wrecking ball at inside linebacker they have largely lacked since Ryan Shazier's career-ending injury in 2017. While some things have changed, others have not. Tomlin signed a contract extension in June that runs through the 2027 season, a vote of confidence from team president Art Rooney II that Tomlin remains the right man for the job 17 years in. Tomlin has been clear that he has more coaching days behind him than in front of him, and the many moves the team had over the past eight months indicate a sense of urgency to move from the fringe of contention to the middle of it, a daunting task in a quarterback-rich division.
NEW FACES: QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, LB Patrick Queen, WR Van Jefferson, P Cameron Johnston, C Zach Frazier, OT Troy Fautanu, WR Scotty Miller, WR/RB Cordarrelle Patterson, LB Payton Wilson, WR Roman Wilson.
KEY LOSSES: QB Kenny Pickett, QB Mitch Trubisky, QB Mason Rudolph, WR Diontae Johnson, CB Patrick Peterson, LB Kwon Alexander, LB Mykal Walker, LB Myles Jack.
STRENGTHS: The linebacking group may be one of the best in the NFL. Watt and Alex Highsmith are an elite tandem on the outside and Queen's arrival gives the Steelers their best chance at having a young, athletic difference-maker they have long needed in between. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have become one of the most productive running back duos in league, though how their 2024 goes will depend largely on how an offensive line that looked shaky at times in the preseason develops. The secondary features a perennial Pro Bowler in Minkah Fitzpatrick and a budding star in cornerback Joey Porter Jr.
WEAKNESSES: The wide receiver group outside of George Pickens is questionable at best with no real No. 2 to take attention — and double teams — away from Pickens. The offensive line wasn't exactly crisp during the preseason, though it didn't help that rookie first-round pick Fautanu was banged up and right tackle Broderick Jones looked rusty at times while dealing with multiple injuries he's described as minor. While the Steelers totally overhauled the offense, the path to victory remains much the same: control the clock, have the offense avoid mistakes and hope a defense littered with stars at all three levels stays healthy. It's a formula that's led to the playoffs three of the past four years, but also to quick postseason exits.
CAMP DEVELOPMENT: The Steelers might have their next great outside linebacker in Nick Herbig. Herbig racked up 3 1/2 sacks while playing just 32 snaps in the preseason. His development could allow Pittsburgh to give Watt and Highsmith a little more rest during the early and middle portions of games, in theory keeping them fresh for crunch time.
FANTASY PLAYER TO WATCH: Expect Smith to try and find ways to put Pickens in favorable matchups. When properly engaged, the 6-foot-4 Pickens is an electric playmaker who can shift fortunes in a flash. When he's not, he's an unenthusiastic blocker prone to pouting. Pickens believes he's matured as he heads into his third season, and with a contract year coming up, will be eager to prove he can command the type of No. 1 money being given to the Cee Dee Lambs of the world.
BetMGM Sportsbook: Win Super Bowl: 50-1. Over/under wins: 8 1/2.
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