MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Sensing an opportunity in swing-state Wisconsin, Republicans are pouring money into the bid to unseat incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in that state's closely watched Senate race.
Democrats also have dialed up their efforts in the contest, which remains crucial to their hopes of maintaining their Senate majority. They maintain an overall spending advantage and insist that the contest was always going to tighten as Election Day nears.
A loss in Wisconsin to GOP nominee Eric Hovde would make preserving Democrats' majority extremely difficult in a national landscape in which Republicans have far fewer seats to defend this year.
That prospect has Republicans feeling optimistic about the race. “It’s pretty clearly a jump ball right now,” said Republican strategist Alec Zimmerman, who worked on Sen. Ron Johnson ’s winning 2022 campaign.
Democrats as of Monday have outspent Republicans on advertising in the Wisconsin Senate race, $93 million to $69 million, according to AdImpact, which tracks campaign ad spending. Baldwin’s campaign accounts for more than a third of all Democratic spending on ads, while Hovde has been more dependent on outside groups.
But Republicans have invested more heavily than Democrats in advertising down the stretch, with $21 million in spots reserved between Monday and Nov. 5 compared to $15 million in spots reserved by Democrats. Almost two-thirds of the new GOP spending comes from the Senate Leadership Fund, the political action committee led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, which has reserved $13.1 million in ad spots.
“The momentum’s on my side,” Hovde said last week at a forum in Milwaukee. “I plan to win this race. I will win this race because I’m going to stay focused on what matters.”
Baldwin, who was campaigning Monday in western Wisconsin with vice presidential nominee Tim Walz, said in a statement to The Associated Press that she’s not surprised about the state of the race.
“We always knew the race was going to tighten,” Baldwin said. “That’s why I’ve been working every day to bring Wisconsinites together behind my campaign. ... I’m confident that we have the strength, momentum, and message to win next month.”
Democratic strategist Melissa Baldauff said Hovde has shored up his support among the Republican base and has the money to spend to get his message out, including the outside funding. Hovde has loaned the campaign at least $13 million of his own money to be spent on the race.
To win, Baldwin just needs to be herself and tout her record, Baldauff said.
“That’s one of her strengths and one of the things that sets this race apart from other Senate races across the country,” Baldauff said. “The fact that people know who she is, she does what she says she’s going to do and she shows up across Wisconsin.”
Zimmerman, the Republican strategist, said Baldwin faces the toughest political environment of any of her three races. Hovde has the advantage on issues like the economy and immigration and needs to stay focused on those to win, Zimmerman said.
“Wisconsin’s always been on a knife’s edge,” Zimmerman said. “Fifty-fifty elections are the rule here, and she’s always been the exception. What you’re seeing here is a return to that principle.”
Four of the past six presidential elections were decided in Wisconsin by less than a percentage point. Its races for U.S. Senate have not been quite as tight — Baldwin won by nearly 6 points in her first race in 2012 and by almost 11 points in 2018. But in 2022, Johnson won a third term by only a point.
The Baldwin race is critical for Democrats who are defending 23 seats in the Senate, including three held by independents who caucus with Democrats clinging to a 51-49 majority. That’s compared with just 11 seats that Republicans hope to keep in their column.
Baldwin has said she’s employing the same strategy as her past campaigns, traveling to both red and blue parts of the state touting her record fighting for Wisconsin farmers and the middle class. This week alone she planned to be in every major media market in the state.
To bolster her bipartisan bona fides, Baldwin earned the endorsement from the conservative Wisconsin Farm Bureau for her work benefitting the state’s agriculture and dairy industries, making her the first Democratic candidate in a statewide race to win it in more than 20 years.
Baldwin has attacked Hovde as an out-of-touch carpetbagging millionaire intent on cutting Social Security and Medicare, ending the Affordable Care Act and supporting a national abortion ban. Ads have focused on Hovde's role as CEO of H Bancorp and its primary subsidiary, Utah-based Sunwest Bank, and the fact that he owns a $7 million estate in Laguna Beach, California.
Hovde was born in Madison, owns a house there and insists he’s never been a full-time resident of California.
She's also hit him on past statements he's made voicing opposition to abortion rights and his support for returning the federal budget to 2019 levels, which Democrats says will results in massive cuts to popular programs like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and veterans benefits.
Hovde says Baldwin has distorted his positions. On Social Security, for instance, Hovde said he only supports raising the retirement age to receive benefits for those in their 40s or younger and that he doesn't want to take away benefits for older people as a Baldwin TV ad claims.
Hovde has softened his position on abortion since his first Senate run in 2012, which Baldwin has used in an ad. Hovde now says he would not vote for a federal ban and that the issue should be left to the states.
Hovde casts Baldwin, who has been in elected office for nearly 40 years, as a career politician who hasn't done enough to secure the border or help the economy. He accuses her of dodging voters by agreeing to only one debate, which is to be broadcast live on Friday night.
“I’m going to stay focused on interacting with everybody and addressing their questions,” Hovde said last week, while criticizing Baldwin for only agreeing to one debate. “I will never run from any hard questions.”
If Hovde wins, Wisconsin will be represented by two Republicans in the Senate for the first time since 1957. But Republicans would have to overcome Democratic momentum that has resulted in their candidates winning 14 of the past 17 statewide elections.
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Polling editor Amelia Thomson DeVeaux and Leah Askarinam of the AP's Decision Desk contributed from Washington.