The Advocate. May 29, 2024.
Editorial: As hurricane season approaches, make safety a priority early
The imminent arrival of June 1 brings with it a sense of foreboding for many across Louisiana.
It’s the start of hurricane season, which, over the last two decades, has meant months of anxiously watching the tropics, debating models and studying the cone of uncertainty. After 2023’s relatively benign hurricane season around here, forecasters are calling for 2024 to more closely resemble 2020 and 2021, when south Louisiana was battered by Category 4 monsters Laura and Ida as well as smaller storms Delta and Zeta.
Those storms laid waste to much of the state, costing billions of dollars. Efforts to rebuild in many areas are still underway.
This year appears set to bring the conditions of those years back.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 17-25 named storms, with 8-13 of those reaching hurricane strength. Between four and seven could become “major” hurricanes, those at Category 3 and above. The federal agency has also pegged the likelihood of an “above normal” season at 85%.
Other forecasters at Colorado State University are offering similarly intense projections. They are predicting an “extremely active” hurricane season, with estimates ranging from 23 to 25 named storms and as many as 12 of those reaching hurricane strength. They said five could develop into major storms of Category 3 strength or above.
The main culprits this year are record water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, where the hurricanes enter the Gulf of Mexico, and lower wind shear due to the presence of a La Niña in the Pacific, as opposed to the storm-suppressing El Niño. Climate change has also contributed, making conditions more conducive to the formation of major storms.
With that in mind, we urge Louisiana residents to prioritize safety when a storm threatens. That may mean evacuating sooner than you might’ve in the past. As Hurricane Ida illustrated, what seems like it may not be a major storm when it enters the Gulf may end up transforming into a raging monster that slams southern Louisiana. This new dynamic may make contraflow impractical, which means that evacuating sooner rather than at the last minute will be even more important.
Otherwise, the classic tips still apply. Update all paperwork that you may need. Make sure you have plenty of water — experts estimate a gallon per person per day and enough for three days. Solar or battery-powered phone chargers are also important. Make sure your prescriptions are all up to date and fully stocked.
Hurricanes are, by definition, scary events. We urge readers to remove some of the anxiety by preparing to evacuate early. And those who decide to ride it out should stock up on essentials — and be prepared for the inevitable disruptions.
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