BOISE, Idaho (AP) — While No. 11 Boise State’s spot in the Mountain West Championship game has been secured, the team's fate in the College Football Playoff still hangs in the balance as the Broncos host a scrappy Oregon State on Friday.
Boise State (10-1), which is hosting Oregon State for the first time since 2012, needs a strong showing against the Beavers to show the College Football Playoff committee that the Broncos are not only deserving of a spot in the playoffs but also a first-round bye.
Oregon State appears primed to play the role of spoiler.
Fresh off a 41-38 upset over previously-ranked Washington State last week, the Beavers travel to Boise with a clearer understanding of who they are and with nothing to lose, according to first-year coach Trent Bray.
“There’s not as many bodies available,” Bray said, “but at the same time you know who those guys are a little bit more than you did early in the year or mid-year and we’re just rolling with them.”
The challenge for Oregon State will be dealing with the Boise State running back everyone knows in Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty.
Jeanty, who leads the nation in rushing with 2,062 yards, rushing touchdowns with 27 and all-purpose yards with 2,164, will yet again be the focal point of the opposing defense. The good news for the Broncos is that nobody has figured out a way to stop their star player.
But Boise State coach Spencer Danielson knows if his team doesn’t play at its best, it could fall victim to an Oregon State team he believes is far better than its record indicates.
“Our guys watch the film and they’re like, ‘Coach this is a really good football team,’” Danielson said. “So they see it. They see that we have a big test at hand. And so regardless of the rankings and what it is, we know we got to go earn the right to go play our best.”
When Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen is at his best, the team's offense can be nearly unstoppable. But when he’s not, the Broncos become a vulnerable, one-dimensional team — even if that one-dimensional running game has the best player in the country.
Madsen, who has passed for 2,361 yards and 19 TDs with a 62% completion rate, will have an opportunity to exploit an Oregon State pass defense that has been porous at times.
Oregon State, which anointed Ben Gulbranson the starter at the end of October, found some good success mixing in duel-threat signal caller Gabarri Johnson last week against Washington State. And Bray sounds like he intends to utilize both players against the Broncos.
“(Playing two quarterbacks) was definitely something specific for Washington State and things we saw that we could take advantage of,” Bray said. “But that’s something we want to do moving forward with with Gabarri because he has that type of ability that makes him hard to defend.”
While Jeanty’s extensive workload has been a concern for the Boise State coaching staff, Jambres Dubar is finally healthy again and will give the Broncos added depth at the position. Against Wyoming last week, Jeanty delivered 53 yards on four carries on the Broncos’ game-winning drive before Dubar finished it off with a 2-yard scoring run.
“Dubar has battled through injuries from fall camp to now, and he has just continued to work in practice to get himself back to where he’s 100%,” Danielson said. “He’s a really good football player and hasn’t been able to show that the way we all wanted because of injuries. But last week he was ready for the moment. And I did not hesitate to put him in.”
Both teams are among college football’s upper echelon when it comes to converting on third downs. Boise State ranks seventh with a 49.6 conversion percentage, while Oregon State is 23rd, converting 45.6% of the time. The Broncos are even better at home, converting more than 59% of their attempts there.
Oregon State can attack through the air but prefers to grind it out on the ground and chew up the clock in the process. The Beavers are fifth in the nation in time of possession, averaging 33:51 per game.
But that doesn’t mean Oregon State gets short-changed in offensive plays. It is also averaging 71.5 plays per game, leaving its opponents with only an average of 59.5 plays.
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